According to data from the National Center for Health Statistics, the number of babies born in the United States in 2007 (more than 4.3 million) surpassed even the height of the “baby boom” in the late 1950’s. Like most industrialized nations, the United States worries about a possible population crisis as a result of low fertility rates. Approximately 90 countries worldwide have birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, and many are experiencing a shrinking population. The U.S. population has grown pretty steadily since the most recent low-point in the mid-1970’s, primarily as a result of large immigrant families. ABC/AP article here.
This can’t really be called a “new baby boom” by anyone besides hyperbolic headline writers seeking your attention. While it’s a new high, numbers have been slowly rising for decades, nothing like the massive spike of the post-WWII era, and we’ve been barely hanging on to a roughly 1% per year rate of population increase.
This tiny margin of growth makes the U.S. the world’s fastest growing industrialized country, but the upward trend is not expected to last. Birth rates crashed during the Great Depression, and many believe the recent economic downturn will negatively impact American birth rates in the years to come.
We’re a long way from needing to worry about the kind of catastrophic population decrease that Russia is currently experiencing, with an expected 22% drop in population over the next 45 years, and the idea that we need to dramatically increase our birth rate is really only espoused by religious zealots and people with thinly-veiled xenophobia.
While developed nations fret over the possibility of more and more retirees demanding benefits and over-taxing a shrinking workforce, the developing world faces a population explosion. Unfortunately those who might have the most ability to reverse this trend choose to ignore the problem. This week the Pope visited Africa, and regardless of some of the world’s highest birth rates (not to mention HIV infection rates), the Vatican still condemns the use of condoms and insists Catholics should go forth and multiply. The African continent’s population is expected to double to nearly 2 billion by the year 2050.
China has the world’s largest population at 1.3 billion, and the government has established a strict 1 child per couple policy in order to fight overpopulation. Even with one of the lowest population growth rates in the developing world (.006% per year) as a result of these harsh measures, the population is expected to continue growing for another 25 years before peaking at 1.5 billion.
200 years ago, there were 1 billion people alive on the surface of the planet, today there are over 6.75 billion, and by 2050 the global population will be around 9 billion according to most estimates.
I’d hate to be perceived as a doomsayer, but inevitably at this rate we will eventually reach the carrying capacity of the Earth. With growing concerns of climate change as a result of human activity and scarcity of resources, it’s hard to believe we aren’t getting very close to that limit. The present system simply cannot handle a substantial portion of the developing world demanding the consumption rate or quality of life that Americans currently enjoy.
What are we to do? Americans refuse to apologize for our quality of life, and we’re generally loathe to reduce our consumption or change our habits. Lowering birthrates admittedly creates economic concerns, and obviously draconian and inhumane methods of population control/reduction are strictly off the table.
Certainly, investing in family planning education and distribution of birth control in the 3rd world will do wonders, but it’s still only a band-aid. Perhaps, barring the invention of free or nearly-free energy, the only option available to us now is to finally get serious about space exploration and colonization.
The one thing we undoubtedly cannot afford is to continue business as usual.
2 Responses
Oh…. but what do you care? You won’t be alive, right?!
Obviously, I’m joking.
I remember having a similar conversation about this with one of my professors in London. I was referring, mainly, to climate change (an issue that would be greatly affected by overpopulation) and how I really had no interest in bringing other humans onto a planet that was already dying out.
She told me to eat some chocolate.
I’M SURROUNDED BY OSTRICHES!!
This does, however, bring up QUITE another issue. What of cloning? If overpopulation is such a futile concern, should we not cease cloning research, and (as you mentioned) refocus efforts toward the colonization of other planets?
Posted on March 19th, 2009 at 9:48 am
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1886814,00.html?xid=rss-topstories
Posted on March 20th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
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